Raws li kev tsim cov tsheb hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv, yog li qhov kev thov cuam tshuam rau cov hlau hluav taws xob siv hauv hluav taws xob motors.
Kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam cav cov neeg muag khoom tau ntsib qhov kev sib tw loj. Keeb kwm, cov chaw muag khoom xws li ABB, WEG, Siemens thiab Nidec tau yooj yim muab cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb siv hauv kev tsim lawv cov motors. Tau kawg, muaj ntau yam khoom cuam tshuam thoob plaws hauv lub neej ntawm kev ua lag luam, tab sis tsis tshua muaj qhov no ua rau muaj teeb meem mus ntev. Txawm li cas los xij, peb tab tom pib pom kev cuam tshuam txog kev xa khoom tuaj yeem cuam tshuam cov peev txheej ntawm cov neeg xa khoom tsheb rau xyoo tom ntej. Hluav taws xob steel yog siv ntau hauv kev tsim hluav taws xob motors. Cov khoom siv no ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev tsim cov electromagnetic teb siv los tig lub rotor. Yog tsis muaj cov khoom siv hluav taws xob cuam tshuam nrog cov ferroalloy no, kev ua haujlwm ntawm lub cav yuav raug txo kom tsawg. Keeb kwm, lub cev muaj zog rau kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam siv tau yog cov neeg siv khoom loj rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob steel, yog li cov khoom siv lub cev muaj zog tsis muaj teeb meem kev ruaj ntseg cov khoom tseem ceeb. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog rau kev tshwm sim ntawm hluav taws xob tsheb, kev sib koom ntawm kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tau raug kev hem thawj los ntawm kev lag luam tsheb. Raws li kev tsim cov tsheb hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv, yog li qhov kev thov cuam tshuam rau cov hlau hluav taws xob siv hauv hluav taws xob motors. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, lub zog sib txuas lus ntawm kev lag luam / kev lag luam lub cev muaj zog thiab lawv cov neeg xa khoom steel tau nce zuj zus. Raws li cov qauv no txuas ntxiv mus, nws yuav cuam tshuam rau lub peev xwm ntawm cov neeg muag khoom los muab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob uas xav tau rau kev tsim khoom, ua rau lub sij hawm txhuas ntev dua thiab cov nqi siab dua rau cov neeg siv khoom.
Cov txheej txheem uas tshwm sim tom qab tsim cov hlau nyoos txiav txim siab seb cov khoom siv tau siv li cas. Ib qho txheej txheem no yog hu ua "txias dov" thiab nws tsim qhov hu ua "txias dov steel" - hom siv rau hluav taws xob hlau. Cold rolled steel ua ib feem me me ntawm tag nrho cov kev xav tau steel thiab cov txheej txheem tsis muaj npe nrov heev. Yog li ntawd, kev loj hlob ntawm kev tsim muaj peev xwm qeeb. Hauv 1-2 xyoo dhau los, peb tau pom cov nqi rau cov hlau txias-kuav los tiag nce mus rau qib keeb kwm. Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve saib xyuas cov nqi thoob ntiaj teb rau cov hlau txias txias. Raws li qhia hauv daim duab hauv qab no, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom no tau nce ntau dua 400% los ntawm nws tus nqi nyob rau lub Ib Hlis 2016. Cov ntaub ntawv qhia txog qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi rau cov khoom txias txias piv rau cov nqi thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2016. Source: Federal Reserve Bank ntawm St. Louis. Lub sijhawm luv luv kev poob siab cuam tshuam nrog COVID yog ib qho laj thawj rau kev nce nqi rau cov hlau txias txias. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev thov nce ntxiv rau cov tsheb hluav taws xob hauv kev lag luam tsheb tau dhau los thiab tseem yuav yog qhov cuam tshuam rau tus nqi. Hauv kev tsim cov tshuab hluav taws xob, hluav taws xob hlau tuaj yeem suav txog 20% ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv. Yog li ntawd, nws tsis yog qhov xav tsis thoob tias qhov nruab nrab muag cov nqi hluav taws xob hluav taws xob tau nce los ntawm 35-40% piv rau Lub Ib Hlis 2020. Peb tab tom tham txog kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam lub cev muaj zog rau cov khoom lag luam tshiab ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tsawg AC lub cev muaj zog. Hauv peb cov kev tshawb fawb, peb tau hnov ntau cov lus ceeb toom tias cov neeg muag khoom muaj teeb meem muab hluav taws xob hlau vim lawv nyiam rau cov neeg siv khoom siv tsheb uas tso cov xaj loj. Peb thawj zaug hnov txog nws nyob rau nruab nrab-2021 thiab tus naj npawb ntawm cov neeg xa mus rau nws hauv kev xam phaj tus neeg muag khoom tau nce.
Tus naj npawb ntawm cov tsheb siv hluav taws xob hauv kev sib kis yog tseem me me piv rau cov tsheb uas siv cov tshuab hluav taws xob sib xyaw ua ke. Txawm li cas los xij, lub hom phiaj ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim tsheb loj qhia tias qhov nyiaj tshuav yuav hloov pauv sai rau kaum xyoo tom ntej. Yog li cov lus nug yog, qhov kev thov loj npaum li cas hauv kev lag luam automotive thiab lub sijhawm teem rau nws yog dab tsi? Txhawm rau teb thawj feem ntawm cov lus nug, cia peb ua piv txwv ntawm peb lub tuam txhab loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb: Toyota, Volkswagen, thiab Honda. Ua ke lawv ua 20-25% ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam tsheb hauv kev xa khoom. Peb lub tuam txhab no ib leeg yuav tsim 21.2 lab lub tsheb hauv 2021. Qhov no txhais tau hais tias nyob ib ncig ntawm 85 lab lub tsheb yuav tsim los ntawm 2021. Rau qhov yooj yim, cia peb xav tias qhov piv ntawm tus naj npawb ntawm cov motors siv hluav taws xob hlau thiab hluav taws xob muag tsheb yog 1: 1. Yog tias tsuas yog 23.5% ntawm kwv yees li 85 lab lub tsheb uas tsim tawm yog hluav taws xob, tus naj npawb ntawm cov motors xav tau los txhawb qhov ntim yuav ntau dua li 19.2 lab qhov hluav taws xob qis AC induction motors muag hauv 2021 rau kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam.
Qhov sib txawv ntawm cov tsheb hluav taws xob yog qhov tsis tuaj yeem, tab sis kev txiav txim siab ntawm kev saws me nyuam tuaj yeem yog ib txoj haujlwm txaus ntshai. Dab tsi yog qhov tseeb, txawm li cas los xij, yog tias cov neeg tsim hluav taws xob zoo li General Motors tau cog lus rau kev siv hluav taws xob tag nrho los ntawm 2035 hauv 2021, thawb lub lag luam tsheb hluav taws xob mus rau theem tshiab. Ntawm Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Sib Tham, peb taug qab kev tsim cov roj teeb lithium-ion siv hauv tsheb hluav taws xob uas yog ib feem ntawm peb cov kev tshawb fawb tsis tu ncua rau hauv kev lag luam roj teeb. Cov koob no tuaj yeem siv los ua qhov qhia txog tus nqi ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob tsheb. Peb nthuav qhia cov khoom sau hauv qab no, nrog rau cov ntawv sau yav dhau los qhia txias dov steel. Muab lawv ua ke pab ua kom pom kev sib raug zoo ntawm kev nce hauv hluav taws xob tsheb tsim khoom thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob steel. Cov ntaub ntawv sawv cev rau kev ua tau zoo piv rau 2016 qhov tseem ceeb. Source: Interact Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Cov kab grey sawv cev rau kev muab cov roj teeb lithium-ion rau cov tsheb fais fab. Qhov no yog tus nqi ntsuas thiab tus nqi 2016 sawv cev rau 100%. Cov kab xiav sawv cev rau cov nqi txias txias, rov nthuav tawm raws li tus nqi ntsuas, nrog rau 2016 tus nqi ntawm 100%. Peb kuj qhia peb EV roj teeb khoom kwv yees uas sawv cev los ntawm dotted grey tuav. Tsis ntev koj yuav pom qhov nce ntxiv ntawm cov roj teeb xa khoom nruab nrab ntawm 2021 thiab 2022, nrog kev xa khoom ze li ntawm 10 npaug siab dua li xyoo 2016. Ntxiv rau qhov no, koj tuaj yeem pom tus nqi nce rau cov hlau txias txias rau tib lub sijhawm. Peb qhov kev cia siab rau kev ua kom nrawm ntawm EV ntau lawm yog sawv cev los ntawm kab dotted grey. Peb cia siab tias qhov kev xav tau sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob yuav nthuav dav rau tsib xyoos tom ntej no vim tias muaj peev xwm loj hlob qeeb tom qab qhov kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom lag luam no hauv EV kev lag luam. Thaum kawg, qhov no yuav ua rau muaj kev tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv, uas yuav tshwm sim nws tus kheej hauv lub sijhawm xa khoom ntev dua thiab cov nqi tsheb ntau dua.
Txoj kev daws teeb meem no yog nyob rau hauv txhais tes ntawm cov neeg muab khoom steel. Thaum kawg, cov hlau hluav taws xob ntau yuav tsum tau tsim los kaw qhov sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov. Peb cia siab tias qhov no yuav tshwm sim, txawm tias maj mam. Raws li kev lag luam hlau tsis sib haum nrog qhov no, peb cia siab tias cov chaw muag khoom tsheb uas muaj kev sib koom ua ke ntau dua rau hauv lawv cov saw hlau (tshwj xeeb yog cov khoom siv hlau) kom pib nce lawv cov feem los ntawm kev xa khoom luv luv thiab cov nqi qis dua. tsim nyog rau lawv ntau lawm. Cov neeg muab khoom siv cav tau saib qhov no yog qhov kev sib tw yav tom ntej rau xyoo. Tam sim no peb tuaj yeem hais nrog kev ntseeg siab tias qhov sib txawv no tau pib ua tiav.
Blake Griffin yog tus kws tshaj lij hauv automation systems, industrial digitization thiab off-road tsheb electrification. Txij li thaum koom nrog Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Sib Tham hauv 2017, nws tau sau cov lus qhia tob txog qhov tsis tshua muaj hluav taws xob AC lub cev muaj zog, kev saib xyuas kev kwv yees thiab kev lag luam mobile hydraulics.
Post lub sij hawm: Aug-08-2022